Report warns Russia using shadow fleet to probe NATO drone defenses
Report Warns Russia Using Shadow Fleet to Probe NATO Drone Defenses
Report warns Russia using shadow fleet - As NATO allies gear up for a key summit in Turkey, the discussion on drone warfare and the testing of the alliance’s defenses by Russia is expected to dominate the agenda. A recent analysis from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) suggests that Moscow has been leveraging its fleet of aging, sanctioned vessels to conduct covert drone operations, probing the readiness of NATO nations’ air defense systems. These activities, which span multiple European countries and the United Kingdom, have raised concerns about the potential for broader conflict escalation.
Russian Drones Target Critical Infrastructure
Between August 2024 and February 2026, the IISS documented 144 suspected drone incursions near strategic military and nuclear sites across Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark. Notably, in November 2024, drones were observed flying over American air bases in the UK, highlighting the campaign’s reach beyond Europe. The report indicates that these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are not only testing technical capabilities but also assessing the political and public reactions of NATO members.
"There's no doubt in my mind that the Russians are using the shadow fleet vessels as a platform to get different types of drones in closer to various European countries," said Ret. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who led US Army Europe until 2018. His remarks underscore the strategic intent behind the operations, which appear to be part of a broader effort to evaluate the responsiveness of allied defense networks.
The scale of the drone activity became even more apparent in 2025, when over 1,000 suspicious sightings were reported in Germany alone. These drones targeted defense companies and military installations where Ukrainian troops were training, suggesting a dual-purpose strategy—both to disrupt NATO operations and to gather intelligence. The IISS analysis also linked the shadow fleet to incidents in the Netherlands and Belgium, where US B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs and France’s ballistic-missile submarine base at ÎŽle Longue were identified as key targets.
Psychological and Economic Impact
Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council emphasized that the drone campaign serves a dual role: it tests the effectiveness of air defenses while simultaneously gauging public sentiment. "Whoever is doing it is testing the reaction of the authorities, is testing how the public will respond, will they panic, will they blame their politicians and the authorities," she said. The report further notes that these incursions aim to erode trust in airspace security and create conditions for future crises.
"Also they are testing perhaps to see how we as European countries or how European countries might react in a real crisis there," Braw added, highlighting the psychological dimension of the attacks. The goal, she implied, is to prepare for larger-scale operations by identifying vulnerabilities and fostering fear.
Strategists warn that the campaign extends beyond immediate military targets. It seeks to expose weaknesses in critical infrastructure, including dual-use civilian facilities and logistics hubs supporting Ukraine. By disrupting commercial aviation and creating uncertainty, Russia is also attempting to impose economic and psychological costs on European societies. The report suggests that these actions may pave the way for normalized airspace violations, reducing the likelihood of a rapid military response from NATO allies.
Shadow Fleet as a Tool for Deniability
The IISS has tracked the movements of Russia’s shadow fleet, a network of older ships designed to bypass sanctions. These vessels, such as the Arctica, have been identified as potential launch platforms for drones, offering Moscow a layer of deniability. For instance, on January 3, 2025, the Arctica sailed along Denmark’s coast while 20 drones hovered over the port of Koege before vanishing at sea. A week later, on September 22, similar sightings led to the temporary closure of Copenhagen Airport, with the Arctica and another ship, the Boracay, reportedly in the vicinity.
Sweden, in particular, has emerged as a notable participant in this trend. It is the only European nation to directly accuse Moscow of drone-related aggression, following an incident where a Russian spy ship launched a drone near a French aircraft carrier. Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed these claims, insisting that "Name even one proven fact" to substantiate the allegations. His skepticism reflects the broader narrative of Russia maintaining control over its actions through strategic ambiguity.
Expanding the Threat Beyond Europe
The drone campaign’s reach is not confined to Europe. The IISS report notes a surge in unexplained drone sightings in the United States over the past few years. In December 2023, unauthorized drones were observed over Virginia’s Joint Base Langley-Eustis, raising alarms about the vulnerability of domestic infrastructure. While the exact motives for these incidents remain unclear, they align with the broader pattern of Russia testing its ability to infiltrate NATO’s periphery.
Experts argue that these operations are part of a calculated effort to push NATO into a defensive posture. By simulating real-world threats, Russia aims to force allies into a position where they may prioritize immediate countermeasures over long-term strategic goals. The incidents also serve as a test for how swiftly NATO can coordinate responses across its diverse member states, many of which have varying levels of military preparedness.
Strategic Goals and Future Implications
The campaign’s objectives are multifaceted. It targets not only military installations but also the psychological resilience of populations, aiming to instill fear and pressure governments to temper support for Ukraine. Additionally, the drones’ ability to evade radar systems underscores a technological advantage that Russia may exploit in future conflicts. "It's a combination of espionage," Hodges said, "but also psychologically to create a lot of anxiety in populations to scare them so that they would put pressure on their governments not to support Ukraine."
Recent events, such as the peak in drone sightings during late 2025, have forced the temporary closure of several European airports, including those in Germany, Spain, and Denmark. These disruptions have drawn attention to the potential for drones to cripple both military and civilian operations. The IISS findings suggest that the shadow fleet’s role in these attacks is not incidental but deliberate, serving as a mobile base for UAVs to conduct reconnaissance and sabotage.
Analysts believe the campaign could mark a shift in how Russia approaches warfare. By using drones and shadow ships, Moscow is creating a hybrid strategy that blends traditional naval operations with modern aerial threats. This approach allows for flexibility, enabling Russia to probe defenses without committing to a full-scale conflict. As the alliance scrambles to enhance its response capabilities, the incident underscores the evolving nature of global security challenges in an era of unmanned warfare.
The increasing frequency of these drone incursions has also sparked debates about the future of NATO’s defense architecture. With the alliance relying on shared resources and coordinated strategies, the ability to detect and neutralize threats quickly becomes a critical factor. The report’s conclusion highlights the need for NATO to address gaps in surveillance, communication, and rapid response protocols, ensuring that the alliance remains resilient against emerging tactics.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues to shape international dynamics, Russia’s drone campaign serves as both a test and a warning. By probing NATO’s defenses and sowing uncertainty, Moscow is positioning itself to exploit any weaknesses in the alliance’s structure. The shadow fleet, once a symbol of economic defiance, now appears as a strategic asset in a broader geopolitical theater. With each incursion, the line between espionage, intimidation, and actual warfare blurs, leaving NATO allies to navigate a complex and ever-evolving threat landscape.