US Experience Fighting Iran Offers Lessons for China, Experts Say
US experience fighting Iran offers lessons – The ongoing conflict in Iran has now reached its third month, offering China a critical opportunity to analyze how U.S. military operations function under pressure. This real-time observation is shaping strategic discussions among defense analysts, who emphasize that the adversary’s actions on any battlefield ultimately dictate the course of events. CNN recently interviewed a range of experts from China, Taiwan, and other regions to explore how the recent combat in the Persian Gulf could influence Beijing’s approach to potential confrontations with Washington. These specialists caution that China must avoid overestimating its own capabilities, particularly in areas where its military lacks familiarity. A key concern is the risk of misjudging the balance between offense and defense, a lesson underscored by Iran’s ability to bypass U.S. missile defense systems.
Defensive Vulnerabilities Exposed
Former Colonel Fu Qianshao, a retired air force officer in China, highlighted the importance of learning from Iran’s tactics. He noted that the conflict has revealed how even advanced systems like the Patriot or Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) can be circumvented with innovative strategies. “Our defensive systems must be scrutinized for weaknesses to ensure we remain unassailable in future wars,” Fu said in a CNN interview. This warning reflects a broader assessment by military strategists, who argue that China’s rapid expansion of offensive capabilities has not yet matched its development of robust defenses.
“We need to devote significant efforts to identify weakness in our defensive side to ensure we remain invincible in future wars.”
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has significantly increased its offensive firepower in recent years, particularly through the deployment of hypersonic glide vehicles. These advanced missiles can outmaneuver traditional interceptors, making them a formidable tool in any conflict. However, analysts point out that the PLA’s focus on offensive capabilities may have come at the expense of defensive readiness. For instance, the U.S. has demonstrated the effectiveness of combining high-tech precision weapons with cost-effective guided munitions, a strategy that has allowed it to target critical infrastructure and military assets with precision.
Asymmetric Warfare and Technological Innovation
The conflict in the Persian Gulf has showcased how asymmetric warfare can tilt the balance of power. Iran’s use of low-cost Shahed drones and ballistic missiles has proven capable of penetrating U.S. air defenses, even with the latter’s superior technology. This highlights a crucial takeaway for China: the importance of adaptability in military operations. “The enemy’s ability to innovate and exploit weaknesses is often underestimated,” said one defense analyst, underscoring the need for China to refine its defensive strategies.
Meanwhile, China’s own military modernization efforts are advancing rapidly. The PLA Air Force is expanding its fleet of fifth-generation stealth fighters, with plans to deploy approximately 1,000 J-20 jets in long-range precision strike scenarios, as reported by the British think tank RUSI. These jets are comparable in capability to the U.S. F-35s, but their effectiveness in real-world conditions remains a subject of debate. China is also developing a long-range stealth bomber, similar to the U.S. B-2 or B-21 models, which could further enhance its strategic reach.
Taiwan as a Strategic Nexus
While the U.S.-Iran conflict provides direct insights, its implications extend to other potential theaters of war, including the Taiwan Strait. Analysts suggest that Taiwan is often seen as a critical flashpoint in any broader Sino-American confrontation. China’s Communist Party has consistently emphasized its commitment to “reunifying” the island, despite its current status as a self-governing democracy. President Xi Jinping has not dismissed the possibility of using military force to achieve this goal, a stance that has raised concerns about the island’s preparedness.
According to experts, China’s military is now capable of countering both the U.S. in high-tech precision warfare and Iran in large-scale drone operations. This dual capability could be pivotal in a conflict over Taiwan. Chieh Chung, an associate research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, noted that “long-range rockets and drone swarms will definitely play a key role in China’s joint military operations against Taiwan.” Such an approach could overwhelm Taiwanese defenses, leveraging both speed and volume to secure strategic advantages.
“Long-range rockets and drone swarms will definitely play a key role in China’s joint military operations against Taiwan.”
Yet, some experts warn that Taiwan’s current defenses may not be sufficient to withstand a sustained assault. A recent government watchdog report criticized the island’s drone countermeasures as “ineffective,” labeling them a “major security risk” to vital infrastructure and military installations. This assessment aligns with concerns that China’s ability to mass-produce drones, supported by its vast manufacturing capacity, could outpace Taiwan’s defensive capabilities. “Chinese civilian manufacturers have the capacity to retool in under a year to produce one billion weaponized drones annually,” a 2025 report from War on the Rocks stated, illustrating the scale of China’s industrial output.
Despite these challenges, Taiwan is actively working to strengthen its military infrastructure. Gene Su, managing director of Thunder Tiger, the island’s leading drone manufacturer, urged increased investment in mass production. “We need to produce continuously, day and night, to counter our enemies,” Su said. This push for self-reliance reflects Taiwan’s determination to maintain its autonomy in the face of potential aggression. However, the speed at which China can deploy its drones may force the island to adopt more aggressive defensive strategies, including the development of advanced anti-drone systems.
Shifting Dynamics in the Pacific
The U.S. is also taking note of the lessons from the Iran conflict, particularly in terms of its own strategic adaptability. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, remarked during a Senate hearing in April that “drones make warfare much more costly for the offensive side.” This insight signals a shift in U.S. military thinking, where it may find itself in a defensive posture rather than an offensive one in a potential Pacific conflict.
Experts believe that China’s military display in the Iran conflict has reinforced its ability to project power globally. The PLA’s growing arsenal, including hypersonic missiles and stealth technology, demonstrates a readiness to support Xi Jinping’s vision of a new world order. However, the success of such operations depends not only on technological superiority but also on the ability to anticipate and adapt to the adversary’s tactics. As the U.S. continues to refine its own strategies, the balance of power in the Pacific could become increasingly dynamic.
While the Iran conflict has provided a blueprint for China’s military planning, the lessons learned are not limited to this region. The war has highlighted the importance of integrating both high-tech and low-cost weaponry, a concept that could shape future operations. Analysts caution that China must avoid overconfidence in its own strengths, particularly in areas where its experience is still limited. By studying the U.S. approach to Iran, Beijing can better prepare for the complexities of a potential confrontation with Washington, ensuring that its military strategies are both comprehensive and resilient.
Ultimately, the conflict in Iran serves as a microcosm of the broader challenges that lie ahead for China. It underscores the need for a balanced military approach, where both offensive and defensive capabilities are developed in tandem. As the PLA continues to expand its arsenal, the lessons from this war will remain a vital reference point for future strategic decisions. Whether in the Pacific or elsewhere, the ability to adapt and learn from adversaries will be crucial in determining the outcome of any large-scale conflict between the world’s two superpowers.
