Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?

Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?

The Middle East conflict intensified in early March as the United States and Israel carried out extensive military operations against Iran, resulting in the death of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on 28 February. Iran retaliated swiftly, launching strikes on Israeli and U.S.-aligned targets in the Gulf region, with the conflict expanding to Lebanon. Casualties and damage have risen across all involved parties, creating a widespread escalation.

Initial strikes by the U.S. and Israel focused on Iran’s missile capabilities, military installations, and key leadership figures. Khamenei, who had governed Iran since 1989, was among the first casualties. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was declared his successor on 8 March. Additional high-ranking Iranian officials, including security chief Ali Larijani, intelligence minister Esmail Khatib, and Basij force leader Gholamreza Soleimani, were also targeted in air attacks by Israel.

Alongside targeting Iran’s leadership, the U.S. and Israel focused on critical infrastructure. This included Iran’s nuclear facilities, which the country claims are peaceful, and its oil and gas sites. Kharg Island, a vital economic hub, and South Pars, part of the world’s largest natural gas field, were among the key locations struck. On 4 March, an Iranian warship was sunk by a U.S. submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 individuals.

Iran has labeled the U.S. and Israeli actions as “unprovoked” and “illegitimate,” responding with missile and drone attacks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have hit Israeli government and military sites in Tel Aviv. In Israel, the ambulance service Magen David Adom reported 19 casualties from missile strikes as of 29 March. The conflict also spread to Gulf nations hosting U.S. bases, including Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, and Kuwait, as well as Oman and Saudi Arabia, where 13 U.S. service members and 24 others were killed.

International incidents further complicated the situation. A French soldier was killed in northern Iraq by an Iranian drone at a Kurdish military base, while an airstrike in Anbar province claimed seven Iraqi lives. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), formed to combat Islamic State militants, reported 27 of its members were slain. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, four Palestinian women died in an Iranian missile attack targeting a beauty salon. Turkey stated that NATO defenses had intercepted three Iranian missiles over its airspace, and Azerbaijan accused Iran of drone strikes on its airport.

“The targeting of civilians and of countries not directly involved is a clear violation of international law,” said a U.S. official, condemning Iran’s retaliatory actions.

The war has disrupted media access in Iran and severely limited internet connectivity, complicating information flow. As the situation evolves, analysts remain divided on the potential duration of the conflict, with some suggesting it could continue for months or even years depending on the scale of retaliation and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.