A free Iran is their shared dream. But the diaspora remains torn on the best path forward.

A Free Iran is Their Shared Dream. But the Diaspora Remains Torn on the Best Path Forward

Los Angeles has become a microcosm of the Iranian diaspora’s internal conflict. Last Saturday, crowds gathered outside City Hall, decrying the outbreak of an unapproved war with chants like “Stop the war in Iran” and “We the people don’t want war.” Just miles away, on the Westside in a community dubbed “Tehrangeles,” the same expatriate group celebrated what they saw as a turning point in their homeland’s history. Armed with American, Israeli, and Iranian flags, they danced to upbeat music, expressing hope that the demise of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes could mark the beginning of a new era.

The emotional rift within the Iranian diaspora has deepened in recent days, revealing stark contrasts in priorities. While some view the war as a necessary step to dismantle the theocratic regime, others fear it might lead to further destruction. Abbas Milani, a Stanford University professor specializing in Iranian studies, noted the growing divide: “Some individuals harbor such deep resentment toward the regime that they believe, ‘At any cost, come and destroy this regime even if it means sacrificing parts of the country.’” Conversely, others advocate for regime change without compromising the country’s stability.

Earlier this year, the diaspora appeared united in backing protests against the government’s harsh tactics. But this solidarity has fractured as violence intensifies. Milani observed that the combination of destructive imagery and jubilant support for military action has heightened tensions. “The images of destruction and the joyous backing for war have become a greater source of friction than we typically see,” he remarked. “It will only grow more challenging before things ease.”

Online discourse has intensified since the strikes, with labels intensifying ideological lines. Supporters of military action are increasingly called “Zionists,” a term that has taken on new controversy following Hamas’s attacks on Israel in October 2023. Meanwhile, anti-war advocates are accused of aligning with the regime. The debate over leadership has also escalated, with factions divided on who should lead Iran after the current government’s collapse. Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarchy, is a favored candidate for some, while others remain cautious about reinstating former royal ties.

Amid the escalating conflict, Iran’s internet blackout has cut off communication for many, leaving families disconnected. Nowruz, the Persian New Year, approaches as a symbol of renewal, yet it casts a shadow over the current turmoil. Rumors swirl about Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s son, potentially taking over. Analysts suggest the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may consolidate power if it survives the ongoing crisis.

President Donald Trump has hinted at a strategy to completely overhaul Iran’s leadership structure, offering potential names for a “good leader.” However, his approach faces criticism. A recent NBC News poll found that 54% of potential voters disapprove of his military involvement in the situation, echoing the split within the diaspora. Last year, the National Iranian American Council and YouGov reported that 53% of Iranian Americans opposed U.S. military action against Iran. A new poll, set to release next week, could provide updated insights.

The Iranian Diaspora Collective, an Instagram account with over 81,000 followers, emphasized the community’s diversity: “We are not a monolith. Millions will never share the same ideology or identity, and that plurality is the strength of any free society.” Los Angeles-based pastor Ara Torosian, a Christian who fled Iran in 2010, expressed sorrow over the destruction of historic sites and the loss of innocent lives, particularly children. Yet he argued that the current suffering surpasses generations of repression faced by dissenters under the regime.

“This is not just about the immediate chaos, but the legacy of years of suppression,” Torosian said. “The pain now feels like a reckoning for all that came before.”