Fact check: How can a country actually withdraw from NATO?
Fact check: How can a country actually withdraw from NATO?
Recent discussions about NATO’s future have been fueled by US President Donald Trump’s public criticisms of the alliance, particularly amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. He has hinted at potential withdrawal, emphasizing that European allies and other Western partners have not fulfilled their commitments. In an interview with UK newspaper The Telegraph, Trump referred to NATO as a “paper tiger,” claiming that its members have not acted decisively on his request to form a naval task force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively closed.
The NATO Withdrawal Process
According to Article 13 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, a country seeking to leave the alliance must formally notify the United States. This notification then informs all other members, with the official withdrawal taking effect a year later. While this process appears straightforward for European nations and Canada, it raises questions about the US’s ability to exit. As both a member and the depositary of the treaty, the US manages the texts and oversees withdrawal procedures. In theory, the US could stop being a member while retaining its role as the treaty’s custodian, but other countries might vote to transfer those duties to another nation.
Legal Challenges in the United States
In 2023, then-President Joe Biden signed a legislative amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024. This law requires a two-thirds Senate majority or an Act of Congress for a president to “suspend, terminate, denounce or withdraw” from NATO. It also prohibits the use of federal funds to support such a move. Rafael Loss, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted that the law “makes it formally very difficult for the president to take the US out of the treaty.” However, he acknowledged that Trump’s actions might lead to different legal interpretations, potentially involving the Supreme Court.
Implications of a Strategic Withdrawal
Experts caution that the US could weaken NATO without officially leaving. By drastically reducing its financial contributions and abandoning its mutual defense obligations under Article 5, Washington might still be a part of the alliance but functionally detached. Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, stated on X that “Trump can’t legally withdraw from NATO without Senate consent.” Yet, he added that the alliance could already be “broken in the way that matters most” if members lose confidence in the US’s commitment to Article 5. Loss echoed this concern, suggesting that while formal withdrawal would harm NATO, a non-committed status might offer clearer signals to other members.
