Can the US sustain its war in Iran?

Can the US sustain its war in Iran?

On February 28, the United States initiated “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. In the days that followed, American forces executed thousands of strikes across the country, utilizing over 20 distinct weapon systems through air, land, and sea operations. The first phase of US-Israeli attacks reportedly led to the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, according to initial reports.

President Trump has expressed confidence in the US military’s ability to endure the campaign, claiming the nation has a “virtually unlimited” supply of arms. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this sentiment during a visit to US Central Command in Florida, stating, “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.” General Dan Caine, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added, “We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense.”

“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” said Hegseth. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”

“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” remarked Caine.

However, Trump later hinted at potential challenges, noting in a post on his social media platform, “The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better … At the highest end, we have a good supply but are not where we want to be.” Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, concurred, emphasizing that the most critical issue lies in the availability of top-tier, long-range missiles and interceptors.

The financial burden of countering Iran’s drone attacks has become a key concern. While Shahed 136 drones cost between $20,000 and $50,000 to manufacture, defending against them requires substantial resources. Fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles, for instance, cost $450,000 each, with operational hours priced at $40,000. “The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” Grieco explained. She pointed out that the US has tested cheaper alternatives, like interceptor drones, but has not adopted them in large numbers.

Iran’s ballistic missile defense, relying on costly Patriot missiles priced around $3 million each, has raised further alarms. Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that production levels are under pressure, estimating that 200-300 Patriot interceptors have already been deployed. “There were about 1,000 Patriots at the beginning, and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” he said. With only 620 PAC-3 interceptors delivered in 2025, Cancian warned that scaling up production could take at least two years.

Despite these concerns, the military’s capacity for shorter-range weapons such as bombs and Hellfire missiles appears robust. “Militarily, I think we could sustain it for a very long time,” Cancian stated. “We have the ground munitions to do that.” Yet, the efficiency of these systems remains questionable, as the cost exchange between drone attacks and countermeasures becomes increasingly difficult to manage.

On March 6, Trump convened with defense firms, announcing plans to quadruple production of high-grade weaponry. The White House highlighted that the agreement was long in the works, but Grieco questioned its novelty, calling it “a non-announcement” since many of the deals had already been disclosed. Lockheed Martin’s commitment to increase Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 per year, for instance, has been public for some time.