As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

UK Defence Spending Under Scrutiny Amid Military Reductions

Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised concerns over the UK’s current defense strategy, claiming it places the nation’s security at risk. He criticized the government’s recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR) for failing to meet necessary investment levels, stating that Britain cannot be defended using an expanding welfare budget.

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” the former Labour defence secretary warned, highlighting a growing gap between financial commitments to social programs and military readiness.

Military Size Reductions

The UK military has significantly scaled back since the end of the Cold War. In 1990, the army had 153,000 regular soldiers, but this number has dropped to 73,790 today. The 2025 SDR set a target to keep the regular force above 73,000, yet enlistment applications saw a 40% decline in 2025 compared to 2024.

The Royal Navy’s fleet has also diminished, reducing from 48 major combat ships in 1990 to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. This contraction has sparked debates over the navy’s operational readiness, as evidenced by delays in deploying HMS Dragon to the Gulf for a RAF base in Cyprus.

The Royal Air Force, once boasting over 300 combat jets, now operates 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 Joint Strike Fighter F-35 Lightning II aircraft. While these newer models are technologically advanced, they represent a smaller force. Meanwhile, uncrewed aircraft systems—drones—have emerged as a critical component of air capabilities, a concept absent in 1990.

Procurement Challenges and Spending Targets

Despite the government’s claim of planning the largest defense spending increase since the Cold War, analysts argue this goal is modest given the long-term decline in defense budgets since the Berlin Wall fell. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) aims to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying spending by April 2027, with an ambition to reach 3% in the next Parliament.

Lord Robertson emphasized the disparity between defense and welfare spending, noting that mid-1980s defense costs were lower than social benefits. However, welfare spending is projected to rise to 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade, driven in part by increased claims for Personal Independence Payments (PIP). The MoD’s procurement process faces scrutiny, with the National Audit Office (NAO) reporting that 12 of its 47 major projects in the Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) are rated “Red”—indicating unachievable delivery timelines.

The NAO also highlighted inefficiencies in the MoD’s administration, noting it takes an average of six and a half years to award contracts for projects over £20 million. The 2025 SDR proposed a “segmented approach” to streamline procurement, aiming to complete contracts within two years. Analysts point to rising threats from Russia, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and uncertainty about the US’s NATO commitment as key reasons for accelerating defense spending.