Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Once more, Lebanon finds itself embroiled in conflict, and I recall a conversation with President Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace. This modernist structure, perched atop a hill overlooking Beirut, hosted our meeting last August. Aoun, a retired military leader, assumed office following a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim faction backed by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had suffered significant losses and was socially isolated, yet Aoun remained determined to dismantle its arms. “I was born an optimist,” he remarked, reflecting his resolve.

A fragile ceasefire had held since November 2024, ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Israeli strikes continued daily, targeting individuals and groups linked to Hezbollah. In some regions, the conflict never truly ceased. From my residence in east Beirut, I could occasionally hear the hum of Israeli drones flying overhead. For Hezbollah’s supporters, the group symbolizes resistance against Israeli expansion, while critics argue it prioritizes Iranian interests, pulling Lebanon into repeated wars.

The emergence of Hezbollah traces back to the 1980s, during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon. Initially, it functioned as a militant organization, funded and armed by Iran. The Taif Agreement of 1989 aimed to disarm all militias and establish a power-sharing system, but Hezbollah retained its weapons by positioning itself as a national defense force. Israel withdrew its troops in 2000, ending its 18-year presence in southern Lebanon, yet territorial disputes persisted.

Despite a 2006 UN resolution demanding Hezbollah’s disarmament, the group still controls parts of southern Lebanon and Beirut’s Dahieh district. Naim Qassem, its leader, has refused to discuss nationwide disarming. President Aoun, however, warns that unilateral action against Hezbollah’s arsenal could reignite violence. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he cautioned during our August meeting. With limited authority over Hezbollah, the Lebanese government faces a tough challenge in brokering lasting peace.

Recently, Israel dismissed Aoun’s ceasefire proposal until the U.S. brokered a deal with Iran. After a single day of air strikes killed over 300 Lebanese, the two nations agreed to meet in Washington. Yet, without Hezbollah’s cooperation, the path to resolution remains uncertain. The group’s dual role as a political party and social movement complicates matters, as it holds sway in parliament and provides essential services in regions where the state’s reach is weak.

President Aoun’s Dilemma

Since assuming power, Aoun has championed the “state monopoly on arms” policy. Under the 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah had agreed to withdraw fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon, a region it dominated for decades. But the group’s refusal to negotiate suggests the agreement may not hold. The question lingers: can the Lebanese government enforce disarmament without Hezbollah’s consent, or will the nation be forced into yet another cycle of violence?

“I was born an optimist.”