Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

Bowen: Trump’s Call for Iran Uprising Echoes 1991 Gulf War Strategy

Three decades ago, an American leader ignited a movement that would later haunt them. President George H.W. Bush, during a visit to a Massachusetts factory producing Patriot missiles, spoke of a strategy that seemed promising but carried hidden risks. The speech, delivered on 15 February 1991, came at a pivotal moment in the Gulf War, as coalition forces were preparing to launch a ground assault against Iraqi troops occupying Kuwait. Though the mission had UN backing, the path ahead was uncertain.

At the time, I was in Baghdad, documenting the war’s toll. Just days prior, a U.S. airstrike had killed over 400 civilians in Amiriyah, a suburb. The Americans and British claimed it was a command center, but I saw the bodies—mostly children, women, and the elderly—and the smoldering ruins of the shelter. They were wrong, yet the world accepted the narrative. Meanwhile, Bush’s words at the Patriot factory planted a seed: he urged Saddam Hussein to leave Kuwait, but the idea of the Iraqi people rising up against their leader was left to unfold without clear support.

“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop… and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside…”

His remarks were met with cheers, but the outcome was far from triumphant. After the war, a ceasefire allowed Hussein to retain power. In the north, Kurds began a revolt, while Shias in the south rose up. Yet the coalition forces stood back, leaving the regime to crush the uprisings. Helicopters, which had been used in the war, were repurposed for attacks that killed thousands of civilians. The Americans, British, and French watched from the sidelines, their inaction a lesson learned too late.

Decades later, I find myself recalling that moment as I hear Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu speak of a “once-in-a-generation chance” for Iranians to overthrow their government. Unlike the 1991 campaign, which promised a UN-backed resolution, these calls for rebellion lack guarantees of direct military backing. The parallel is striking: both leaders urged change, but neither promised to protect the people they claimed would rise. The result? A repeat of history, where the storm of rebellion was met with hesitation.

The aftermath of the first Gulf War reshaped the region. A no-fly zone, permanent bases, and the birth of Al Qaeda—all emerged from the same strategic miscalculations. In 2003, the second Bush administration completed the task its father had begun, removing Saddam Hussein and reshaping Iran’s geopolitical landscape. Now, the third Gulf War seeks to challenge the Islamic Republic’s growing influence, targeting its military and nuclear programs. Israel, in particular, views these ambitions as existential threats, and Trump’s alliance with Netanyahu mirrors the same pattern of escalation.

As I reflect on the past, I wonder: will history repeat itself? Will the people of Iran, like the Kurds and Shias before them, face a reckoning when the promised support never arrives? The answer lies in the lessons of 1991, a warning that echoes across the years.