With World Cup looming, can Mexico contain the chaos unleashed by the killing of drug lord ‘El Mencho’?

Can Mexico Secure Stability Ahead of World Cup Amid Cartel Turmoil?

With the FIFA World Cup fast approaching, Mexico faces mounting pressure to ensure safety as the killing of drug lord Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera intensifies tensions. The assassination has led to a surge in violence, raising concerns that the country may struggle to maintain order during its high-profile event. Mexico, co-hosting the tournament with the U.S. and Canada, anticipates welcoming over 5 million visitors for the global spectacle. The opening match, set for June 11 at the Banorte Stadium in Mexico City, will draw international attention, but the recent unrest in Jalisco state threatens to overshadow the occasion.

The death of El Mencho, the head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, triggered immediate clashes between gang members and security forces. Days of chaos erupted in the state, with businesses and vehicles set ablaze as criminal factions vied for control. The U.S. State Department even issued shelter-in-place advisories for travelers. Despite the violence subsiding, some experts remain skeptical. Mexican Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch acknowledged the risk of internal conflict within the cartel, stating his team would closely monitor any shifts in leadership dynamics.

Analysts warn that a succession struggle could escalate violence. David Saucedo, a security expert, highlighted the likelihood of prolonged conflict, noting that even a temporary truce might not prevent further unrest. “If the cartel’s surviving leaders perceive the operation as a direct threat, they may adopt a strategy of total war against the government,” Saucedo said. The World Cup’s schedule in Jalisco, including playoff matches and four key games, adds urgency to the situation. Nearly 3 million tourists are expected to visit the region during the event.

Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, will host playoffs featuring teams like Congo and Jamaica, as well as a friendly between Mexico and Portugal. Governor Pablo Lemus emphasized the tournament’s continuity, stating, “There is no intention to remove any venues from Mexico. The three locations remain firmly scheduled.” However, the challenges of securing the area are significant. Victoria Dittmar of InSight Crime noted that the government’s efforts to stabilize Jalisco have been complicated by the violent reactions following El Mencho’s capture.

Following the cartel leader’s death, authorities initially planned to transport him by helicopter to Guadalajara for medical treatment. When he succumbed en route, the decision was reversed to avoid provoking unrest. This incident underscores the delicate balance between combating organized crime and safeguarding the country’s image ahead of the World Cup. With 13 matches set in Mexico, the stakes are high for both security and reputation.

Key Events and Venues

The World Cup’s first tests will occur in March, with Guadalajara hosting playoff games and Estadio Banorte in Mexico City staging a friendly against Portugal. These early events will serve as a litmus test for stability, especially in Jalisco, where the cartel’s influence remains strong. The upcoming matches will involve Mexico, South Korea, Colombia, Uruguay, and Spain, with final pairings determined by the playoffs.

“The challenge of pacifying the region has grown sharper since El Mencho’s removal. Cities bracing for mass tourism now face the dual pressure of security and maintaining their allure,” said Victoria Dittmar.

As the nation prepares for the spotlight, the question remains: can Mexico contain the fallout from its most notorious criminal figure’s death before the World Cup begins?