The house always wins, how the establishment finally came out on top in Thailand

The Establishment’s Comeback in Thailand’s Political Shift

Thaksin Shinawatra, the former billionaire owner of English football club Manchester City, once a dominant political figure in Thailand, now faces the decline of his family’s influence while incarcerated. His political career, marked by transformative policies and a loyal base, has been overshadowed by recent electoral results that signaled a return to power for Thailand’s traditional elites after 25 years of disruption.

For over two decades, Thaksin’s allies controlled the nation’s political landscape, securing victories in nearly every election since 2001. His tenure as prime minister twice and his ability to mobilize millions of supporters, particularly in the rural northeast, made him a formidable force. Yet, his reign has been punctuated by clashes with the conservative establishment—a coalition of military, royalist, and business interests wary of his populist reforms.

“Since the Thaksin challenge burst onto the scene in the early 2000s, the whole Thai political game has been about resisting this juggernaut, and resisting progress and reform of the establishment,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University.

Thaksin’s policies, aimed at uplifting working-class communities and expanding healthcare access, earned him widespread support. However, these efforts also fueled tensions with the elite, leading to his 2006 ouster via military coup and subsequent conviction for corruption. He spent 15 years in self-imposed exile before returning in 2023, a move analysts suggest was strategic to reinvigorate his political influence.

His comeback coincided with a new challenge from a progressive movement advocating bold reforms, including open discourse about the monarchy and structural changes to governance. Despite this, Thaksin’s party, Pheu Thai, formed a coalition with former adversaries in the military, sidelining the progressive faction. Critics argue this alliance was a calculated effort to secure power, with Thaksin leveraging his party as a political pawn.

“He used his party as a bargaining chip with the Thailand conservative establishment, and to get himself out of a prison sentence – which is he is now serving,” noted Napon Jatusripitak, a political scientist at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

The 2026 election marked a turning point, with Pheu Thai suffering its worst performance in decades. Notably, it failed to secure any seats in Chiang Mai, Thaksin’s birthplace and a stronghold of his support base. The defeat followed his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, being removed from office due to ethical violations linked to a leaked conversation criticizing the military.

Thaksin’s recent imprisonment—initially eight years for corruption, later reduced to one year after a royal pardon—has intensified scrutiny. While he served part of his sentence in a VIP hospital, critics accused the system of favoritism. A court’s decision to transfer him to prison further weakened his party’s momentum, leaving many supporters feeling betrayed.

Analysts believe the election outcome heralds a period of greater political stability for Thailand, which has endured frequent changes in leadership, military interventions, and prolonged unrest. With the establishment reclaiming control, the nation may finally break free from the cycle of upheaval that defined its recent history.